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Housing crash. Home Prices Tumble. On a way to recession ?

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Running time 05:49. Nov. 27, 2007 (found at Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, talk with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hays in New York about the U.S. housing market and the economy.

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Learn more about CSI Home Price Indices market at macromarkets.com

Home prices fell 4.5 percent in the three months through September, according to a report today by S&P/Case-Shiller, the most in at least two decades. (Source: Bloomberg)

00:00 "I don't see much evidence of a bottom."
01:44 U.S. economy in "immediate crisis"; recession
03:32 Housing market and government response

Housing crash video : Robert Shiller Doesn't See Evidence of U.S. Housing `Bottom'

Home Prices Tumble. On a way to recession ? House prices are going down now in all 20 US cities covered in Shiller latest survey.

By Bill Bonner in Waterford, Ireland. November 29, 2007

“The U.S. market has so many issues:  subprime, mortgages and foreclosures. Those are probably the biggest variables and we are anticipating it's going to be more difficult.”

This is pretty much what Yale professor and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, Robert Shiller told Bloomberg in a TV interview last night. House prices are going down now in all 20 US cities covered in his latest survey.

And he doesn’t see a bottom yet, as the US comes out the other side of the biggest speculative housing boom in history. It’s not a short term problem, he emphasises. This is going to take time to work through and the longer it continues the more people will be affected. It may even push the US into recession.

And the probability of that happening has gone up according to the latest thinking from Goldman Sachs. They put it at 40-45%.

That kind of scenario points to plenty more downside pressure for the dollar and plenty more upside potential for commodities, in particular oil.

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Housing Plan no Panacea for What Ails the U.S. Housing Sector

 


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